118 Location and scale mixture of AR model

In this part, we will extend the location mixture of AR models to the location and scale mixture of AR models. We will show the derivation of the Gibbs sampler for the model parameters as well as the R code for the full posterior inference.

118.0.1 The Model

The location and scale mixture of AR(p) model for the data can be written hierarchically as follows:

\begin{aligned} &y_t\sim\sum_{k=1}^K\omega_kN(\mathbf{f}^T_t\boldsymbol{\beta}_k,\nu_k),\quad \mathbf{f}^T_t=(y_{t-1},\cdots,y_{t-p})^T,\quad t=p+1,\cdots,T\\ &\omega_k\sim Dir(a_1,\cdots,a_k),\quad \boldsymbol{\beta}_k\sim N(\mathbf{m}_0,\nu_k\mathbf{C}_0),\quad \nu_k\sim IG(\frac{n_0}{2},\frac{d_0}{2}) \end{aligned} \tag{118.1}

Introducing latent configuration variable L_t \in \{1,2,\cdots,K\}, such that L_t=k \iff y_t\sim N(\mathbf{f}^T_t\boldsymbol{\beta}_k,\nu_k), and denote \boldsymbol{\beta}=(\beta_1,\cdots,\beta_K), \boldsymbol{\omega}=(\omega_1,\cdots,\omega_K), \mathbf{L}=(L_1,\cdots,L_T), we can write the full posterior distribution as:

p(\boldsymbol{\beta},\boldsymbol{\nu},\boldsymbol{\omega},\mathbf{L}|\mathbf{Y},\mathbf{F}) \propto p(\mathbf{Y}|\boldsymbol{\beta},\boldsymbol{\nu},\boldsymbol{\omega},\mathbf{F})p(\boldsymbol{\beta})p(\boldsymbol{\nu})p(\boldsymbol{\omega})p(\mathbf{L}) we can write the full posterior distribution as \begin{aligned} p(\boldsymbol{\omega},\boldsymbol{\beta},\nu,\mathbf{L}|\mathbf{y})&\propto p(\mathbf{y}|\boldsymbol{\omega},\boldsymbol{\beta},\nu,\mathbf{L})p(\mathbf{L}|\boldsymbol{\omega})p(\boldsymbol{\omega})p(\boldsymbol{\beta})p(\nu)\\ &\propto \prod_{k=1}^K\prod_{\{t:L_t=k\}}N(y_t\mid\mathbf{f}^T_t\boldsymbol{\beta}_k,\nu)\prod_{k=1}^K\omega_k^{\sum_{t=1}^T\mathbf{1}(L_t=k)}\prod_{k=1}^K\omega_k^{a_k-1}\prod_{k=1}^K(N(\boldsymbol{\beta}_k\mid\mathbf{m}_0,\mathbf{C}_0)IG(\nu_k|\frac{n_0}{2},\frac{d_0}{2})) \end{aligned}

1.For \boldsymbol{\omega}, we have :

\boldsymbol{\omega}\mid \cdots\sim Dir(a_1+\sum_{t=1}^T\mathbf{1}(L_t=1),\cdots,a_K+\sum_{t=1}^T\mathbf{1}(L_t=K))

For L_t we have

p(L_t=k\mid\cdots)\propto \omega_kN(y_t\mid\mathbf{f}^T_t\boldsymbol{\beta}_k,\nu)

Therefore, L_t follows a discrete distribution on \{1,\cdots,K\}. with probability that L_t taking k proportional to \omega_k N(y_t\mid\mathbf{f}^T_t\boldsymbol{\beta}_k,\nu).

For ν_k and \boldsymbol{\beta}_k denote \mathbf{\tilde{y}}_k:= \{y_t: L_t=k\} and \mathbf{\tilde{F}}_k as the design matrix belonging to \mathbf{\tilde{y}}_k, and n_l=\sum_{}^{T}\mathbb{1}(L_t=k), we have \nu_k\mid \cdots \sim \mathcal{IG}(\frac{n_k^*}{2},\frac{d_k^*}{2}) and \boldsymbol{\beta}_k \sim \mathcal{N}(\mathbf{m}_k,\nu_k\mathbf{C}_k) , where \begin{aligned} \mathbf{e}_k &= \mathbf{\tilde{y}}_k-\mathbf{\tilde{F}}_k^T\mathbf{m}_0, &\mathbf{Q}_k &= \mathbf{\tilde{F}}_k^T\mathbf{C}_0\mathbf{\tilde{F}}_k+\mathbf{I}_{n_k}, &\mathbf{A}_k &= \mathbf{C}_0\mathbf{\tilde{F}}_k\mathbf{Q}_k^{-1} \\ \mathbf{m}_k &= \mathbf{m}_0+\mathbf{A}_k\mathbf{e}_k, &\mathbf{C}_k &= \mathbf{C}_0-\mathbf{A}_k\mathbf{Q}_k\mathbf{A}_k^{T} \\ n_k^* &= n_0+n_k, &d_k^* &= d_0+\mathbf{e}_k^T\mathbf{Q}_k^{-1}\mathbf{e}_k \end{aligned}

Now we have the full conditional distributions for all model parameters. We proceed to implement the model in R with a simulate dataset.

118.0.2 Step 1 Simulate data

We generate some data from the three component mixture of AR(2) process.

Given y_1=-1 and y_2=0 we generate y_3 to y_{3:200} from the following distribution:

\begin{aligned} y_i \sim 0.5\ \mathcal{N}(0.1 y_{t-1} + 0.1 y_{t-2}, 0.25) \\ +\ 0.3\ \mathcal{N}(0.4 y_{t-1} - 0.5 y_{t-2}, 0.25) \\ +\ 0.2\ \mathcal{N}(0.3 y_{t-1} + 0.5 y_{t-2}, 0.25) \end{aligned}

## simulate data
y=c(-1,0,1)
T.all=400

for (i in 4:T.all) {
  set.seed(i)
  U=runif(1)
  if(U<=0.5){
    y.new=rnorm(1,0.1*y[i-1]+0.1*y[i-2],0.25)
  }else if(U>0.8){
    y.new=rnorm(1,0.3*y[i-1]+0.5*y[i-2],0.25)
  }else{
    y.new=rnorm(1,0.4*y[i-1]-0.5*y[i-2],0.25)
  }
  y=c(y,y.new)
}


plot(y,type='l',xlab='Time',ylab='Simulated Time Series')

118.0.3 Setting the Prior

We will fit a location and scale mixture of AR(2) models using 3 components. That is, p=2 and K=3. Firstly, we set up the model by choosing prior hyperparameters. We use weakly informative prior for all parameters. That is, we set :

a_1 = a_2 = a_3 = 1,
m_0 = (0, 0)^\top, C_0 = 10 \times I_2, and
n_0 = d_0 = 1.

They are specified using the following code.

library(MCMCpack)
library(mvtnorm)

## 
p=2 ## order of AR process
K=3 ## number of mixing component
Y=matrix(y[3:200],ncol=1) ## y_{p+1:T}
Fmtx=matrix(c(y[2:199],y[1:198]),nrow=2,byrow=TRUE) ## design matrix F
n=length(Y) ## T-p


## prior hyperparameters
m0=matrix(rep(0,p),ncol=1)
C0=10*diag(p)
C0.inv=0.1*diag(p)
n0=1
d0=1
a=rep(1,K)

118.0.4 Sampling Functions

sample_omega=function(L.cur){
  n.vec=sapply(1:K, function(k){sum(L.cur==k)})
  rdirichlet(1,a+n.vec)
}


sample_L_one=function(beta.cur,omega.cur,nu.cur,y.cur,Fmtx.cur){
  prob_k=function(k){
    beta.use=beta.cur[((k-1)*p+1):(k*p)]
    omega.cur[k]*dnorm(y.cur,mean=sum(beta.use*Fmtx.cur),sd=sqrt(nu.cur[k]))
  }
  prob.vec=sapply(1:K, prob_k)
  L.sample=sample(1:K,1,prob=prob.vec/sum(prob.vec))
  return(L.sample)
}

sample_L=function(y,x,beta.cur,omega.cur,nu.cur){
  L.new=sapply(1:n, function(j){sample_L_one(beta.cur,omega.cur,nu.cur,y.cur=y[j,],Fmtx.cur=x[,j])})
  return(L.new)
}


sample_nu=function(k,L.cur){
  idx.select=(L.cur==k)
  n.k=sum(idx.select)
  if(n.k==0){
    d.k.star=d0
    n.k.star=n0
  }else{
    y.tilde.k=Y[idx.select,]
    Fmtx.tilde.k=Fmtx[,idx.select]
    e.k=y.tilde.k-t(Fmtx.tilde.k)%*%m0
    Q.k=t(Fmtx.tilde.k)%*%C0%*%Fmtx.tilde.k+diag(n.k)
    Q.k.inv=chol2inv(chol(Q.k))
    d.k.star=d0+t(e.k)%*%Q.k.inv%*%e.k
    n.k.star=n0+n.k
  }  
  1/rgamma(1,shape=n.k.star/2,rate=d.k.star/2)
}

sample_beta=function(k,L.cur,nu.cur){
  nu.use=nu.cur[k]
  idx.select=(L.cur==k)
  n.k=sum(idx.select)
  if(n.k==0){
    m.k=m0
    C.k=C0
  }else{
    y.tilde.k=Y[idx.select,]
    Fmtx.tilde.k=Fmtx[,idx.select]
    e.k=y.tilde.k-t(Fmtx.tilde.k)%*%m0
    Q.k=t(Fmtx.tilde.k)%*%C0%*%Fmtx.tilde.k+diag(n.k)
    Q.k.inv=chol2inv(chol(Q.k))
    A.k=C0%*%Fmtx.tilde.k%*%Q.k.inv
    m.k=m0+A.k%*%e.k
    C.k=C0-A.k%*%Q.k%*%t(A.k)
  }
  
  rmvnorm(1,m.k,nu.use*C.k)
}

118.0.5 The Gibbs Sampler

## number of iterations
nsim=20000


## store parameters


beta.mtx=matrix(0,nrow=p*K,ncol=nsim)
L.mtx=matrix(0,nrow=n,ncol=nsim)
omega.mtx=matrix(0,nrow=K,ncol=nsim)
nu.mtx=matrix(0,nrow=K,ncol=nsim)


## initial value
beta.cur=rep(0,p*K)
L.cur=rep(1,n)
omega.cur=rep(1/K,K)
nu.cur=rep(1,K)

Now everything has been set up, we can start to code the loop.

Note it may take a while to complete the loop.

## Gibbs Sampler
for (i in 1:nsim) {
  set.seed(i)
  
  ## sample omega
  omega.cur=sample_omega(L.cur)
  omega.mtx[,i]=omega.cur
  
  ## sample L
  L.cur=sample_L(Y,Fmtx,beta.cur,omega.cur,nu.cur)
  L.mtx[,i]=L.cur
  
  ## sample nu
  nu.cur=sapply(1:K,function(k){sample_nu(k,L.cur)})
  nu.mtx[,i]=nu.cur
  
  ## sample beta
  beta.cur=as.vector(sapply(1:K, function(k){sample_beta(k,L.cur,nu.cur)}))
  beta.mtx[,i]=beta.cur
  
  ## show the numer of iterations 
  if(i%%1000==0){
    print(paste("Number of iterations:",i))
  }
  
}

[1] "Number of iterations: 1000"
[1] "Number of iterations: 2000"
[1] "Number of iterations: 3000"
[1] "Number of iterations: 4000"
[1] "Number of iterations: 5000"
[1] "Number of iterations: 6000"
[1] "Number of iterations: 7000"
[1] "Number of iterations: 8000"
[1] "Number of iterations: 9000"
[1] "Number of iterations: 10000"
[1] "Number of iterations: 11000"
[1] "Number of iterations: 12000"
[1] "Number of iterations: 13000"
[1] "Number of iterations: 14000"
[1] "Number of iterations: 15000"
[1] "Number of iterations: 16000"
[1] "Number of iterations: 17000"
[1] "Number of iterations: 18000"
[1] "Number of iterations: 19000"
[1] "Number of iterations: 20000"

118.0.6 Checking the Posterior Inference Result

Finally, we plot the posterior mean and interval estimate of the original data using the later 10000 posterior samples, which is shown below.

sample.select.idx=seq(10001,20000,by=1)

post.pred.y.mix=function(idx){
  
  k.vec.use=L.mtx[,idx]
  beta.use=beta.mtx[,idx]
  nu.use=nu.mtx[,idx]
  
  
  get.mean=function(s){
    k.use=k.vec.use[s]
    sum(Fmtx[,s]*beta.use[((k.use-1)*p+1):(k.use*p)])
  }
  get.sd=function(s){
    k.use=k.vec.use[s]
    sqrt(nu.use[k.use])
  }
  mu.y=sapply(1:n, get.mean)
  sd.y=sapply(1:n, get.sd)
  sapply(1:length(mu.y), function(k){rnorm(1,mu.y[k],sd.y[k])})
  
}  

y.post.pred.sample=sapply(sample.select.idx, post.pred.y.mix)


summary.vec95=function(vec){
  c(unname(quantile(vec,0.025)),mean(vec),unname(quantile(vec,0.975)))
}


summary.y=apply(y.post.pred.sample,MARGIN=1,summary.vec95)


plot(Y,type='b',xlab='Time',ylab='',pch=16,ylim=c(-1.2,1.5))
lines(summary.y[2,],type='b',col='grey',lty=2,pch=4)
lines(summary.y[1,],type='l',col='purple',lty=3)
lines(summary.y[3,],type='l',col='purple',lty=3)
legend("topright",legend=c('Truth','Mean','95% C.I.'),lty=1:3,
       col=c('black','grey','purple'),horiz = T,pch=c(16,4,NA))

--- date: 2025-07-07 subtitle: "Bayesian Statistics - Capstone Project" description: "Capstone Project: Bayesian Conjugate Analysis for Autogressive Time Series Models" categories: - Bayesian Statistics - Capstone Project keywords: - Time Series execute: freeze: true # never re-render during project render --- ## Location and scale mixture of AR model {#sec-capstone-lsm} In this part, we will extend the **location mixture** of AR models to the **location and scale mixture** of AR models. We will show the derivation of the Gibbs sampler for the model parameters as well as the R code for the full posterior inference. ### The Model The location and scale mixture of AR($p$) model for the data can be written hierarchically as follows: $$ \begin{aligned} &y_t\sim\sum_{k=1}^K\omega_kN(\mathbf{f}^T_t\boldsymbol{\beta}_k,\nu_k),\quad \mathbf{f}^T_t=(y_{t-1},\cdots,y_{t-p})^T,\quad t=p+1,\cdots,T\\ &\omega_k\sim Dir(a_1,\cdots,a_k),\quad \boldsymbol{\beta}_k\sim N(\mathbf{m}_0,\nu_k\mathbf{C}_0),\quad \nu_k\sim IG(\frac{n_0}{2},\frac{d_0}{2}) \end{aligned} $$ {#eq-capstone-ls-arp-mixture} Introducing latent configuration variable $L_t \in \{1,2,\cdots,K\}$, such that $L_t=k \iff y_t\sim N(\mathbf{f}^T_t\boldsymbol{\beta}_k,\nu_k)$, and denote $\boldsymbol{\beta}=(\beta_1,\cdots,\beta_K)$, $\boldsymbol{\omega}=(\omega_1,\cdots,\omega_K)$, $\mathbf{L}=(L_1,\cdots,L_T)$, we can write the full posterior distribution as: $$ p(\boldsymbol{\beta},\boldsymbol{\nu},\boldsymbol{\omega},\mathbf{L}|\mathbf{Y},\mathbf{F}) \propto p(\mathbf{Y}|\boldsymbol{\beta},\boldsymbol{\nu},\boldsymbol{\omega},\mathbf{F})p(\boldsymbol{\beta})p(\boldsymbol{\nu})p(\boldsymbol{\omega})p(\mathbf{L}) $$ we can write the full posterior distribution as $$ \begin{aligned} p(\boldsymbol{\omega},\boldsymbol{\beta},\nu,\mathbf{L}|\mathbf{y})&\propto p(\mathbf{y}|\boldsymbol{\omega},\boldsymbol{\beta},\nu,\mathbf{L})p(\mathbf{L}|\boldsymbol{\omega})p(\boldsymbol{\omega})p(\boldsymbol{\beta})p(\nu)\\ &\propto \prod_{k=1}^K\prod_{\{t:L_t=k\}}N(y_t\mid\mathbf{f}^T_t\boldsymbol{\beta}_k,\nu)\prod_{k=1}^K\omega_k^{\sum_{t=1}^T\mathbf{1}(L_t=k)}\prod_{k=1}^K\omega_k^{a_k-1}\prod_{k=1}^K(N(\boldsymbol{\beta}_k\mid\mathbf{m}_0,\mathbf{C}_0)IG(\nu_k|\frac{n_0}{2},\frac{d_0}{2})) \end{aligned} $$ 1.For $\boldsymbol{\omega},$ we have : $$ \boldsymbol{\omega}\mid \cdots\sim Dir(a_1+\sum_{t=1}^T\mathbf{1}(L_t=1),\cdots,a_K+\sum_{t=1}^T\mathbf{1}(L_t=K)) $$ 2. For $L_t$ we have $$ p(L_t=k\mid\cdots)\propto \omega_kN(y_t\mid\mathbf{f}^T_t\boldsymbol{\beta}_k,\nu) $$ Therefore, $L_t$ follows a discrete distribution on $\{1,\cdots,K\}$. with probability that $L_t$ taking $k$ proportional to $\omega_k N(y_t\mid\mathbf{f}^T_t\boldsymbol{\beta}_k,\nu)$. 3. For $ν_k$ and $\boldsymbol{\beta}_k$ denote $\mathbf{\tilde{y}}_k:= \{y_t: L_t=k\}$ and $\mathbf{\tilde{F}}_k$ as the design matrix belonging to $\mathbf{\tilde{y}}_k$, and $n_l=\sum_{}^{T}\mathbb{1}(L_t=k)$, we have $\nu_k\mid \cdots \sim \mathcal{IG}(\frac{n_k^*}{2},\frac{d_k^*}{2})$ and $\boldsymbol{\beta}_k \sim \mathcal{N}(\mathbf{m}_k,\nu_k\mathbf{C}_k)$ , where $$ \begin{aligned} \mathbf{e}_k &= \mathbf{\tilde{y}}_k-\mathbf{\tilde{F}}_k^T\mathbf{m}_0, &\mathbf{Q}_k &= \mathbf{\tilde{F}}_k^T\mathbf{C}_0\mathbf{\tilde{F}}_k+\mathbf{I}_{n_k}, &\mathbf{A}_k &= \mathbf{C}_0\mathbf{\tilde{F}}_k\mathbf{Q}_k^{-1} \\ \mathbf{m}_k &= \mathbf{m}_0+\mathbf{A}_k\mathbf{e}_k, &\mathbf{C}_k &= \mathbf{C}_0-\mathbf{A}_k\mathbf{Q}_k\mathbf{A}_k^{T} \\ n_k^* &= n_0+n_k, &d_k^* &= d_0+\mathbf{e}_k^T\mathbf{Q}_k^{-1}\mathbf{e}_k \end{aligned} $$ Now we have the full conditional distributions for all model parameters. We proceed to implement the model in R with a simulate dataset. ### Step 1 Simulate data We generate some data from the three component mixture of AR(2) process. Given $y_1=-1$ and $y_2=0$ we generate $y_3$ to $y_{3:200}$ from the following distribution: $$ \begin{aligned} y_i \sim 0.5\ \mathcal{N}(0.1 y_{t-1} + 0.1 y_{t-2}, 0.25) \\ +\ 0.3\ \mathcal{N}(0.4 y_{t-1} - 0.5 y_{t-2}, 0.25) \\ +\ 0.2\ \mathcal{N}(0.3 y_{t-1} + 0.5 y_{t-2}, 0.25) \end{aligned} $$ ```{r} #| label: fig-capstone-lsm-sim #| fig-cap: "Simulated Time Series" ## simulate data y=c(-1,0,1) T.all=400 for (i in 4:T.all) { set.seed(i) U=runif(1) if(U<=0.5){ y.new=rnorm(1,0.1*y[i-1]+0.1*y[i-2],0.25) }else if(U>0.8){ y.new=rnorm(1,0.3*y[i-1]+0.5*y[i-2],0.25) }else{ y.new=rnorm(1,0.4*y[i-1]-0.5*y[i-2],0.25) } y=c(y,y.new) } plot(y,type='l',xlab='Time',ylab='Simulated Time Series') ``` ### Setting the Prior We will fit a location and scale mixture of AR(2) models using 3 components. That is, $p=2$ and $K=3$. Firstly, we set up the model by choosing prior hyperparameters. We use weakly informative prior for all parameters. That is, we set : - $a_1 = a_2 = a_3 = 1$, - $m_0 = (0, 0)^\top$, $C_0 = 10 \times I_2$, and - $n_0 = d_0 = 1$. They are specified using the following code. ```{r} #| label: lst-capstone-lsm-priors library(MCMCpack) library(mvtnorm) ## p=2 ## order of AR process K=3 ## number of mixing component Y=matrix(y[3:200],ncol=1) ## y_{p+1:T} Fmtx=matrix(c(y[2:199],y[1:198]),nrow=2,byrow=TRUE) ## design matrix F n=length(Y) ## T-p ## prior hyperparameters m0=matrix(rep(0,p),ncol=1) C0=10*diag(p) C0.inv=0.1*diag(p) n0=1 d0=1 a=rep(1,K) ``` ### Sampling Functions ```{r} #| label: lst-capstone-lsm-sampling sample_omega=function(L.cur){ n.vec=sapply(1:K, function(k){sum(L.cur==k)}) rdirichlet(1,a+n.vec) } sample_L_one=function(beta.cur,omega.cur,nu.cur,y.cur,Fmtx.cur){ prob_k=function(k){ beta.use=beta.cur[((k-1)*p+1):(k*p)] omega.cur[k]*dnorm(y.cur,mean=sum(beta.use*Fmtx.cur),sd=sqrt(nu.cur[k])) } prob.vec=sapply(1:K, prob_k) L.sample=sample(1:K,1,prob=prob.vec/sum(prob.vec)) return(L.sample) } sample_L=function(y,x,beta.cur,omega.cur,nu.cur){ L.new=sapply(1:n, function(j){sample_L_one(beta.cur,omega.cur,nu.cur,y.cur=y[j,],Fmtx.cur=x[,j])}) return(L.new) } sample_nu=function(k,L.cur){ idx.select=(L.cur==k) n.k=sum(idx.select) if(n.k==0){ d.k.star=d0 n.k.star=n0 }else{ y.tilde.k=Y[idx.select,] Fmtx.tilde.k=Fmtx[,idx.select] e.k=y.tilde.k-t(Fmtx.tilde.k)%*%m0 Q.k=t(Fmtx.tilde.k)%*%C0%*%Fmtx.tilde.k+diag(n.k) Q.k.inv=chol2inv(chol(Q.k)) d.k.star=d0+t(e.k)%*%Q.k.inv%*%e.k n.k.star=n0+n.k } 1/rgamma(1,shape=n.k.star/2,rate=d.k.star/2) } sample_beta=function(k,L.cur,nu.cur){ nu.use=nu.cur[k] idx.select=(L.cur==k) n.k=sum(idx.select) if(n.k==0){ m.k=m0 C.k=C0 }else{ y.tilde.k=Y[idx.select,] Fmtx.tilde.k=Fmtx[,idx.select] e.k=y.tilde.k-t(Fmtx.tilde.k)%*%m0 Q.k=t(Fmtx.tilde.k)%*%C0%*%Fmtx.tilde.k+diag(n.k) Q.k.inv=chol2inv(chol(Q.k)) A.k=C0%*%Fmtx.tilde.k%*%Q.k.inv m.k=m0+A.k%*%e.k C.k=C0-A.k%*%Q.k%*%t(A.k) } rmvnorm(1,m.k,nu.use*C.k) } ``` ### The Gibbs Sampler ```{r} #| label: lst-capstone-lsm-gibbs-init ## number of iterations nsim=20000 ## store parameters beta.mtx=matrix(0,nrow=p*K,ncol=nsim) L.mtx=matrix(0,nrow=n,ncol=nsim) omega.mtx=matrix(0,nrow=K,ncol=nsim) nu.mtx=matrix(0,nrow=K,ncol=nsim) ## initial value beta.cur=rep(0,p*K) L.cur=rep(1,n) omega.cur=rep(1/K,K) nu.cur=rep(1,K) ``` Now everything has been set up, we can start to code the loop. Note it may take a while to complete the loop. ```{r} #| label: lst-capstone-lsm-gibbs-sampler ## Gibbs Sampler for (i in 1:nsim) { set.seed(i) ## sample omega omega.cur=sample_omega(L.cur) omega.mtx[,i]=omega.cur ## sample L L.cur=sample_L(Y,Fmtx,beta.cur,omega.cur,nu.cur) L.mtx[,i]=L.cur ## sample nu nu.cur=sapply(1:K,function(k){sample_nu(k,L.cur)}) nu.mtx[,i]=nu.cur ## sample beta beta.cur=as.vector(sapply(1:K, function(k){sample_beta(k,L.cur,nu.cur)})) beta.mtx[,i]=beta.cur ## show the numer of iterations if(i%%1000==0){ print(paste("Number of iterations:",i)) } } ``` ### Checking the Posterior Inference Result Finally, we plot the posterior mean and interval estimate of the original data using the later 10000 posterior samples, which is shown below. ```{r} #| label: fig-capstone-lsm-pred sample.select.idx=seq(10001,20000,by=1) post.pred.y.mix=function(idx){ k.vec.use=L.mtx[,idx] beta.use=beta.mtx[,idx] nu.use=nu.mtx[,idx] get.mean=function(s){ k.use=k.vec.use[s] sum(Fmtx[,s]*beta.use[((k.use-1)*p+1):(k.use*p)]) } get.sd=function(s){ k.use=k.vec.use[s] sqrt(nu.use[k.use]) } mu.y=sapply(1:n, get.mean) sd.y=sapply(1:n, get.sd) sapply(1:length(mu.y), function(k){rnorm(1,mu.y[k],sd.y[k])}) } y.post.pred.sample=sapply(sample.select.idx, post.pred.y.mix) summary.vec95=function(vec){ c(unname(quantile(vec,0.025)),mean(vec),unname(quantile(vec,0.975))) } summary.y=apply(y.post.pred.sample,MARGIN=1,summary.vec95) plot(Y,type='b',xlab='Time',ylab='',pch=16,ylim=c(-1.2,1.5)) lines(summary.y[2,],type='b',col='grey',lty=2,pch=4) lines(summary.y[1,],type='l',col='purple',lty=3) lines(summary.y[3,],type='l',col='purple',lty=3) legend("topright",legend=c('Truth','Mean','95% C.I.'),lty=1:3, col=c('black','grey','purple'),horiz = T,pch=c(16,4,NA)) ```