Beng brave

One morning I woke up and discovered that my counrtry has been plunged into a state of war. The very fact that we were back to war under less than a year gave the lie by both Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, that the previous war with its terrible cost had set back the clock of the Iranian war machine in any meaningful way.

A day or two after war broke out a reporter pointed out that the newly appointed defense minister, had pressureed the even newer chief of staff, head of forein intelligence and head of military intelligence to avoid briefing the public about the civilian risks of the war.

Another day in reporteers pointed out that the finanace minister had not planned for the war in the budget which has so far not been approved by the parliament and without a war.

Another minster pointed out that the war was planned later in the year but was moved up. It not clear if this was because of the protest in Iran and the its crackdown with a death toll of over 30000 people or because of the political expediency of a war given our domestic political situation.

My view is that almost every election in the last 20 years has been juxtoposed by either a small war or a large wave of terrorism. This is not a coincidence but a pattern and both have the natural effect of driving voters further right, suppressing scruitiny and playing into the incumbent’s hands. These insight are clearly not lost on Benjamin Netanyaho who has used this startegem to foil his oppents ability to form a government while he was interm prime minister.

However not all of these wars pose the same levels of risk (to Israel and to the other involved parties.) Iran, has demonstrated the ability though proxies and directly to cause both causlities, massive property dameges, and to disrupt our economies.

Yet when these are viewed in the lens of risk management - of suppressing the exisential nuclear threat, or destorying thier long range rocket program the economical costs seem to be justified. Unfortunately it turns out that the leaders and the army have not been fortright with the public about these risks and the projected cost and the country has not yet licked the wounds of the previous war(s).

This is all a prelude to a more personal meditation on the importance of being brave in such times. Everyday we are sent by sirens into bomb shelters. Even as the siren song fades we hear numerous rocket launched follwed bt explosions of varing magnitude. Some are distant and others close enough to shake the ground and rattle the steel doors and windows of the shelter. The old and frail neighbours are terrified and the children are scared. The reality is that almost all of the missiles are intercepted by the counter measures. Yet there even the handful of missiles that get through do terrible damage and spread fear and panic.

A comedian joked on TV during deseart strom when Iraq shot scud missles at Israel that he was told that the chance of getting hit by a missile is about the same as winning the lottery, but he pointed out that the lottery happen only once a day while we our lottery is up to 20 times a day now that the hesbollah has joined the fray. My home town got the fourth most allerts in the country.

So I thought about it these explosions and I realised this. I was in much worse situations in my life, not once or twice either. But this war is not my decision, it was the decision of one or two people and no one else has any say about it.

All one can do is repond to the siren and early warning systems and be almost certain that all will go well. As long as people follow the instructions and avoid unnecessary risks, they can pretty much put the fear far from their minds.

People do have choice about how they handle the new realty of war. If they like to listening to the explosions, spreading videos of the damage and the casualties, guess where each fragment fell and all the roumors they are will be more and more stressed and anxious. Even the statements by the leaders are full of lies and propaganda and deceptions.