134  Lesson 1.3.3: Understanding time-varying uncertain quantities

Kalman Filter Boot Camp (and State Estimation)

This lesson builds on the prior two lessons to understand time-varying uncertain quantities, and how this is captured by the autocorrelation and autocovariance functions.
Probability and Statistics
Published

March 25, 2027

Keywords

Kalman Filter, state estimation, linear algebra

134.1 Overview of vector random (stochastic) processes

  • A stochastic process is a family of random vectors indexed by a parameter set (“time” in our case).
  • For example, we might refer to a random process X_k for generic k.
    • Value of random process at any specific time k = m is a random variable X_m.
  • Usually assume stationarity.
    • The statistics (i.e., PDF) of the random variable are time-shift invariant.
    • Therefore, \mathbb{E}[X_k] = \bar{x} for all k and \mathbb{E}[X_{k_1} X_{k_2}^T] = R_X(k_1-k_2).

134.2 Properties and important points

  1. Autocorrelation:

    R_X(k_1, k_2) = \mathbb{E}[X_{k_1} X_{k_2}^T].

    If stationary,

    R_X(\tau) = \mathbb{E}[X_k X_{k+\tau}^T].

    • Provides a measure of correlation between elements of the process having time displacement \tau.
    • R_X(0) = \sigma_X^2 for zero-mean X.
    • R_X(0) is always the maximum value of R_X(\tau).
  2. Autocovariance:

    C_X(k_1, k_2) = \mathbb{E}\left[(X_{k_1} - \mathbb{E}[X_{k_1}])(X_{k_2} - \mathbb{E}[X_{k_2}])^T\right].

    If stationary,

    C_X(\tau) = \mathbb{E}\left[(X_k - \bar{x})(X_{k+\tau} - \bar{x})^T\right].

134.3 White noise

  • White noise: Some processes have a unique autocorrelation:
    1. Zero mean.

    2. R_X(\tau) = \mathbb{E}[X_k X_{k+\tau}^T] = S_X\,\delta(\tau)

      where \delta(\tau) is the Dirac delta, and

      \delta(\tau) = 0 \quad \forall\; \tau \neq 0.

  • Therefore, the process is uncorrelated in time.
  • Clearly an abstraction, but proves to be a very useful one.

White noise

White noise

Correlated noise

Correlated noise

134.4 Shaping filters: Idea

  • Will assume noise inputs to dynamic systems are white.
    • Limiting assumption, but one that can be easily fixed.
      • Can use second linear system to “shape” the noise as desired.

block diagram

block diagram
  • Can drive our linear system with noise that has desired characteristics by introducing shaping filter H(\cdot) that itself is driven by white noise.

134.5 Shaping filters: Model

  • Combined system GH(\cdot) looks exactly the same as before, but G(\cdot) is not driven by pure white noise any more.
  • Analysis augments original system model with filter states.

Original system has:

x_{k+1} = A x_k + B_w w_{1,k}

z_k = C x_k.

Shaping filter with white input and desired output statistics has:

x_{s,k+1} = A_s x_{s,k} + B_s w_{2,k}

w_{1,k} = C_s x_{s,k}.

Combine into larger-order augmented system driven by white noise:

\begin{bmatrix} x_{k+1} \\ x_{s,k+1} \end{bmatrix} = \begin{bmatrix} A & B_w C_s \\ 0 & A_s \end{bmatrix} \begin{bmatrix} x_k \\ x_{s,k} \end{bmatrix} + \begin{bmatrix} 0 \\ B_s \end{bmatrix} w_{2,k}

z_k = \begin{bmatrix} C & 0 \end{bmatrix} \begin{bmatrix} x_k \\ x_{s,k} \end{bmatrix}.

134.6 Gaussian processes

  • We will work with Gaussian noises to a large extent.
    • Uniquely defined by the first- and second central moments of the statistics.
    • Gaussian assumption not essential.
    • Our filters will always track only the first two moments.

Notation: Until now, we have always used capital letters for random variables.

  • The state of a system driven by a random process is a random variable, so we could call it X_k.
  • It is more common to retain standard notation x_k and understand from the context that we are discussing a random variable.

134.7 Summary

  • Random process is a family of random variables indexed by time.
  • Will assume our random processes are stationary.
  • Autocorrelation and autocovariance measure self-predictability of a signal at different time offsets.
  • White noise is zero mean signal, completely uncorrelated with self (“completely random”).
    • An abstraction, but a very useful one.
  • If noises in a system of interest are not white, we can model them as filtered white noise to imitate the same general characteristics.
  • From now on, unless stated otherwise, all noise signals will be white and Gaussian.